Coronavirus - Why we have to act now

Oscar

> 1k Posts
I am taking the usual step of inserting my own comments into the post from @Oscar that started this thread.

I advice you to remember that "we don't say you're wrong ..." applies to these kinds of discussions as well as to training topics. My advice:

Read what you're about to post before you hit the Send/Save/Post button. Read it multiple times, edit yourself as often as you need, and realize that when discussing hot topics, we want to make sure the heat of the discussion doesn't burn any individual or group of people.

I will watch this thread with email notifications, which means I'll get an email and will look in any time a new post is added.

-S-

- @Steve Freides: lots of people from around the world read this forum. This article is very powerful and has me thinking we have to quarantine today. Please read it and if you see fit, let's try to spread it.

This article explains is very powerful and clear on why we have to take measures today.


Until now, I've been unsure if coronavirus is any different than a normal flu or the swine influenza outbreak we had some years ago. Thanks to that article I now think this is much more serious.
 
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jef

I am a student of strength.
Certified Instructor
Like you, my opinion on this new virus was that it was just like the flu, only a bit tougher.
Learning a bit more about the facts has made me change my mind.

Here in Europe, many governments have come from denial to panic almost overnight.
But at least, now, measures that should have been taken earlier are mostly applied, even if it is going to be tough for many people.

I can only hope that our American friends (north and south) do not do the same mistake and start social distancing (and regular hand washing) right now.
 

conor78

More than 500 posts
Certified Instructor
It’s been unusual in Ireland as the Northern part of country is following the herd immunity line of the British government. The rest of the country is moving towards total lockdown. Worrying times
 

Bauer

> 1k Posts
- @Steve Freides: lots of people from around the world read this forum. This article is very powerful and has me thinking we have to quarantine today. Please read it and if you see fit, let's try to spread it.

This article explains is very powerful and clear on why we have to take measures today.


Until now, I've been unsure if coronavirus is any different than a normal flu or the swine influenza outbreak we had some years ago. Thanks to that article I now think this is much more serious.
I agree. Read it last week and changed my perspective. I think there are a couple of key points:
1. Exponential growth: It can go from 1 to 128 in just 14 days. Likewise from 10,000 to 1,28 million in 14 days. (In 6 weeks from 1 to over a million)
2. Delayed visibility. This is key. It makes decision making hard - at least initially. This is the reason why articles like that are so important. It also means that even after effective measures were taken numbers will still rise for up to two weeks.
3. High number of intensive care cases, about 5%, which can be letal if not treated properly. Thus, death rates can be reduced by 50-90% by taking precautionary measures.

Take care everyone!
 
Personally I have no doubt this is the real deal and that it has been circulating in the US for weeks longer than the first reported cases. For most people it will not kill, but the hospitalization rate is very high, and in US and European countries there does not seem to be the political will to ameliorate this at the Federal/national level that has been displayed in China and S Korea. I fear we are in for a very bumpy ride.

And a bit of cheerful news re seasonal influenza transmission:

"We show that sneezing is rare and not important for—and that coughing is not required for—influenza virus aerosolization."
 

wespom9

More than 500 posts
Certified Instructor
This is extremely serious, and all events need to be cancelled immediately.
In Canada we are still at the edge of growth. We have seen what happens. Schools, businesses, everything is closing as we speak. It must be done.
The economic damage will be huge. Many businesses are going to suffer. People are going to suffer.
This is the worst scare of my lifetime.
Don't go out. Love your family. Flatten the curve. Please.
 

vegpedlr

More than 500 posts
I was at ground zero for H1N1 "swine flu." Self quarantined, school closed, turned out to not be a big deal. Now, here in SW WA, a couple hours from ground zero in Seattle.

Where doctors had to become outlaws to start testing.

Very different response this time around.

This is the Real Deal: (Look at the changes in just the last week)

Growth Rate
Asymptomatic transmission
Deadly

I don't think anyone can be too cautious with this one, so stay well.
 

crazycanuck

> 2k Posts
I appreciate that this article was shared. The statistics/exponential math of it, I think maybe that is what is needed to have people understand the seriousness of this.

I work in both the hospital and home based health care fields and know just from that experience how easily even the best healthcare systems in the world have the potential to become overwhelmed, and just how fragile the health of the highest risk people can be. This would just tip those people over the edge. People need to realize that. I want to stay healthy so I can care for my patients/clients, and we all have loved ones that I am sure we want to be healthy too.

I think we are starting to see perhaps, with the dissemination of articles like this...that there is "we" in society and not just "I". I think we are in the midst of learning some very uncomfortable lessons about ourselves as a humankind that we have brushed under the carpet for too long ...our tendency (in varying degrees) of selfishness or thinking of our own needs first.

It is right in our faces now. One only needs to look at the local grocery store to see it, or people going out of the home uneccesarily. I've seen people remarking that this is natural survival instinct and social contagion. I can understand that tendency. However as humans we have the cognitive ability to be above that, and make the better choice.
 

Denny Phillips

Triple-Digit Post Count
Ohio governor Mike DeWine has leaned on the scientific and medical community and has implemented strict policies; schools closed, bars and restaurants advised to be takeout only, gatherings of less than 50 (less than 10 preferred) among others and he has been spot-on. Those measures have given Ohio a chance at flattening the curve. What will delay things here is the fact that neighboring states like Indiana and Michigan are pussyfooting around. This is an emergency of the highest order. I suspect that we will be severely restricted in travel by mid-week meaning movement only for doctor visits and essential provisions. It will be necessary. I believe the restrictions were decided upon 7-10 days ago and are being incrementally applied so as to limit panic.

A 40-70% infection rate will look like Italy with massive loss of life. This simply has to be avoided. The federal government completely dropped the ball on this and the suffering will be widespread and real. I had relatives that fought in World Wars and staying hunkered down in my house is nothing in comparison.

This is a site provided by Johns Hopkins. Should you choose to open it I would note that last Sunday there was one small dot in all of Ohio. Now the entire country is decidedly red. The rate of transmission is beyond belief.

 
Not sure if its statewide NY but schools are closed, gatherings under 50 only, takeout only. Really the supermarket is the highest risk place you can go currently.
 

Pantrolyx

Triple-Digit Post Count
I have been bound to home office since last Thursday, lasting until easter, at least.
Would not dream of complaining, though, in a time where the majority of our population holds a legitimate fear of losing jobs, facing bankruptcy et cetera. People not respecting the quarantines these days, really pisses me off. Yes, I was one of those describing this as moral panic and irrational craze, but events and facts of late has changed my mind severely.
 

LukeV

More than 300 posts
A public health crisis is not necessarily a personal health crisis and if you are not frail aged or chronically unwell you need not be concerned about catching Coronavirus - it is a mild illness in otherwise healthy people. The concern is more how we protect those that are most vulnerable in our communities and we all have a part to play in that. The good news is that while COVID-19 is a new virus, we catch it, spread it and prevent it just like the old viruses so wash your hands, cover your nose and mouth when coughing/sneezing, don't get too close to people who might be unwell etc. And follow the public health guidelines in your jurisdiction - whether that's quarantine or something else. Those of us that have been in areas afflicted by contagion know the playbook - if everyone stays calm and does what's asked of them, it passes in a matter of weeks. The Government needs to write a huge cheque, to protect casual employees, small business etc for those weeks.
 

silveraw

Double-Digit Post Count
I'd be careful about catching it, the virus might have changed. In Dallas they just announced that they have people in their 20s and 30s hospitalized from the virus despite them having no underlying conditions. They were unclear if those people were in critical condition or not.
 

Geoff Chafe

> 2k Posts
The virus is in my neighbourhood dentist office, medical clinic, and community center.

I have been following this story since November when a strange ilnesss was affecting Hong Kong protesters. No one was concerned until last Monday. Now Calgarians are very concerned.

I have been preparing and training. I will be strong for my family.
 

WhatWouldHulkDo

> 1k Posts
My wife and I were talking about this yesterday. When this first came about, we believed it could be serious, but we also didn't want to add to a panic, particularly for our school-age kids. These are the times that we need real leadership - the people at the top need to step in and make clear that, while it's not about panic, it is time to make sacrifices, disrupt daily life and take the steps necessary to get this under control.

The local leaders have really stepped up to the plate to make this happen - that gives me hope.
 
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